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Progressive overload: how to pick your next weight

Most people who stop getting stronger are not doing anything wrong. They just have no rule for the next session, so they lift the same weight for the same reps for months. Here is the rule I use, and it fits on one line.

By Michael Devlin, . This is general information, not medical advice. If you have an injury or a health condition, or you are unsure, check with your doctor first.

What progressive overload actually means

Your body adapts to what you ask of it. Ask for the same thing every week and it has no reason to change. Progressive overload just means asking for a little more over time: a bit more weight, a rep or two more, or an extra set.

It does not mean adding weight every session. That works for a few weeks at the start and then it stops. What works for years is a small, boring plan that you can follow when you are tired.

The rule: double progression

Pick a rep range for each lift, for example 8 to 12. Start with a weight where you can just reach 8 reps on your sets. Each session, try to add a rep or two. Once you hit 12 reps on every set, add weight and go back to 8.

That is it. Two things move, reps first and then weight, and you always know which one to aim at. If you finished last week on 10, 9 and 8 reps, this week the target is 10, 10 and 9. You are chasing a number, not a feeling.

How big should the jump be?

Small. The jump should be small enough that you can still land most of your reps in the new range. As a rough guide:

  • Barbell squat, deadlift and hip movements: 2.5 to 5 kg.
  • Barbell bench press and overhead press: 1.25 to 2.5 kg.
  • Dumbbell lifts: the next pair up, usually 1 to 2 kg each.
  • Machines and cables: one pin, or the smallest plate you have.

If your gym has no small plates, a set of 1.25 kg magnetic plates is cheap and worth having. A tiny jump you can actually do beats a big jump you fail.

Leave a rep or two in the tank

On most sets, stop when you could have done one or two more reps with good form. Coaches call this reps in reserve. Grinding every set to failure feels productive but it wears you down, and your next session suffers.

A useful test: if the last rep of a set looks nothing like the first, the weight was too heavy for that rep range. Drop it a little and build back up.

When you miss

One bad session is normal. Sleep, stress and a long day at work all show up in the gym. If you miss your reps, keep the same weight next time and try again.

If you miss twice in a row on the same weight, take about 10 percent off, do clean reps, and climb back up. That is not going backwards. It is how you get past a sticking point.

If a lift has been stuck for a month or more, look at the boring stuff first: are you sleeping enough, eating enough, and getting through the same warm-up every time? Then change one thing, like the rep range or the exercise variation, not everything at once.

Other ways to progress

Weight is not the only lever. If you cannot add weight, you can add a rep, add a set, slow the lowering part of the lift, or shorten your rest. All of these count. Just change one at a time and write it down.

That last part matters most. You cannot beat a number you do not remember. Write down the weight, the reps and how it felt, every set. A notebook works. So does an app.

A worked example

Say you are doing dumbbell bench press for 3 sets in the 8 to 12 range. Week one you use 20 kg dumbbells and get 10, 9 and 8. Week two you aim for 10, 10, 9 and get it. Week three you get 11, 10, 10. Week four you hit 12, 12, 12. Now you move to 22 kg, drop to 8 to 10 reps, and start climbing again.

It is slow on purpose. Over a year that pattern adds up to a lot more weight than trying to jump every week and stalling.

Track it in Apex Coach

Apex Coach shows what you lifted last time next to today for every exercise, so the weight is already filled in and you know the number to beat. It starts with a 7-day free trial, then A$8.99 a month or A$69.99 a year, and it is for people 18 and over.

Get Apex Coach on the App Store

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